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EUR/USD. June 13th Results of the day. Industrial production in the euro area fell by 0.4%

4-hour timeframe


The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 108p - 97p - 41p - 37p - 61p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 69p (74p).

The penultimate trading day of the week for the EUR/USD pair is in a downward movement, but in a rather weak one. The only important macroeconomic report of the day - industrial production in the EU in April - showed a decrease of 0.4% y/y and 0.5% m/m. Thus, traders do not find grounds for new purchases of the European currency at this time. What is happening now is what should have been expected. The block of disappointing macroeconomic information from the US significantly helped the euro, but when the weaker news from the EU began to come out, the single currency began to experience market pressure on itself. Now the market can return to the popular topic in recent weeks that is the "Fed rate". According to many experts, the Fed will decide to ease monetary policy at its next meeting. However, we believe that the rate cut is unlikely to happen so quickly. First, despite the decline in GDP and other economic indicators, the US economy still feels quite well and stable. Secondly, in the confrontation with the euro, the dollar still takes a more advantageous position due to the same rates, which now differ by 2.5%. Thirdly, the ECB is now also holding a "dovish" position, and is also thinking about a possible easing of monetary policy and stimulation of the economy. Thus, a reduction in the ECB rate is also possible. Based on the foregoing, the conclusion is that no matter how the US economy slows down, it is still in a better state than the EU economy. For this reason, we believe that the strengthening of the euro was of a short-term nature, and the bears on the euro/dollar pair can be activated in the near future.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD overcame the critical line and may resume the downward trend. Thus, it is now recommended to sell the euro in small lots with a target of 1.1212. The "dead cross" signal can be formed in the next few hours.

It will be possible to buy the euro/dollar pair again if the bulls manage to return above the critical line, with the goals of 1.1341 and 1.1400. In this case, the initiative for the pair will return to the bulls.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

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